This report is generated around the 20th of each month once the previous months numbers have been posted. What we see here is a report generated for the Tri-County Housing Market which includes Sacramento, El Dorado and Placer Counties through September 2021. So we are always looking a month behind. Our statistics are derived from the Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (BAREIS) This is the Multiple Listing Service provider for all real estate brokerages in Sonoma County. If you have questions or wish to know a more specific account of your properties value and the timing of either selling or buying we are always happy to jump on a Zoom or meet with you at your property to evaluate and discuss a strategy. We can be reached via cell/text 707.580.3499 or email us at concierge@elitepartnersrealestate.com
September rolled in with a continued slow down in the market. Our SOLD inventory was down -19.3% with 2,193 homes selling in September while our new inventory grew +15.1% to 2,136 (click here to explore market trends for each county) Our pending properties are down slightly by -3.6%. Month over month numbers continue to demonstrate a slow down with listings down -.05% and Sold down –9.9%. Pending properties are slightly up at +.05% month over month.
The real story comes from looking back to 2019 pre pandemic times when the market seemed more normal. However when you look at the chart below you can see some startling statistics. Look at the change in new listing inventory from 2019 vs. 2021. Down -49.9% or half of what we would expect. This is why demand remains so strong and we are’t really seeing much price depreciation. The conditions that are pushing pricing up are very different than the recessionary period in which loans where available to anyone breathing and the financial mortgage industry was propping up the market artificially. We have a serious inventory level
As a reminder what makes a real estate market normal is when you have a equal amount of homes to sell with an equal demand. Today we do not have this. We have 10+ buyers for every home on the market. Now we have seen significant slowdown from about two month ago. In the middle of Summer homes sold for outrageous amount of offers. Some 30 to 40+ offers on homes. Today we are seeing multiple offers just not crazy numbers. Days On Market (DOM) has remained extremely low. 15 Days is the average time it takes for a home to sell. This represents -34.8% decrease from a year ago but is flat month over month. Price per square foot is up above 20% at +20.3% year over year and down -2.7% from last month. Pricing and slowing down are also very expected this time of the year. As we head into the holiday season the market always produces less activity.
So where are prices headed? Down for the short term. As we head into November, December and even January we will most likely continue to see price depreciation. We peaked in pricing back in July at $647,000 and are now sitting at $615,000. This is -3.5% from a month ago but still up year over year +15.2%. We can never predict what will happen in the future but if I was. a home owner looking to cash out at the peak of the market that has past for the time being. This is not to say we won’t head into Spring next year as robust as we were this year. Gone is the urban city dweller looking to buy with cash their country dream home. Much of what was fueling the Spring selling season this year. Interest rates are still very low and will remain low through most of next year. This means a strong sellers market will continue to prevail and buyers will have strong buying power.
The opinions expressed in this report are those of Don McDonald, Founding partner, and REALTOR with RE/MAX Elite Partners brokered through RE/MAX Gold. They are not in any way intended to express what RE/MAX, RE/MAX Gold or any other agent or brokerage may think. It is my honest analysis backed but some market data. Check back each month around the 25th or so for an update as we continue down this path.
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