What’s Ahead for Home Prices?
As the housing market cools in response to the dramatic rise in mortgage rates, home price appreciation is cooling as well. And if you’re following along with headlines in the media, you’re probably seeing a wide range of opinions calling for everything from falling home prices to ongoing appreciation. But what’s true? What’s most likely to happen moving forward?
While opinions differ, the most likely outcome is we’ll fall somewhere in the middle of slight appreciation and slight depreciation. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections so you have the best information possible today.
What the Experts Are Saying About Home Prices Next Year
The graph below shows the most up-to-date forecasts from five experts in the housing industry. These are the experts that have most recently updated their projections based on current market trends:
As the graph shows, the three blue bars represent experts calling for ongoing home price appreciation, just at a more moderate rate than recent years. The red bars on the graph are experts calling for home price depreciation.
While there isn’t a clear consensus, if you take the average (shown in green) of all five of these forecasts, the most likely outcome is, nationally, home price appreciation will be fairly flat next year.
What Does This Mean?
Basically, experts are divided on what’s ahead for 2023. Home prices will likely depreciate slightly in some markets and will continue to gain ground in others. It all depends on the conditions in your local market, like how overheated that market was in recent years, current inventory levels, buyer demand, and more.
The good news is home prices are expected to return to more normal levels of appreciation rather quickly. The latest forecast from Wells Fargo shows that, while they feel prices will fall in 2023, they think prices will recover and net positive in 2024. That forecast calls for 3.1% appreciation in 2024, which is a number much more in line with the long-term average of 4% annual appreciation.
And the Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics, a poll of over one hundred industry experts, also calls for ongoing appreciation of roughly 2.6 to 4% from 2024-2026. This goes to show, even if prices decline slightly next year, it’s not expected to be a lasting trend.
As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer for Parcl, says:
“In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.”
Don’t let fear or uncertainty change your plans. If you’re unsure about where prices are headed or how to make sense of what’s going on in today’s housing market, reach out to a local real estate professional for the guidance you need each step of the way.
The housing market is shifting, and it’s a confusing place right now. Let’s connect so you have a trusted real estate professional to help you make confident and informed decisions about what’s happening in our market.
Over 140,000 Agents Worldwide in over 110+ countries you can be assured your home will be seen around the world.
RE/MAX Gold enjoys a near 3 to 1 market share advantage. This means 1 our of every three homes is a Gold Nation Home
With over 50 years local market sales and over $3.5+ billion sold you can trust your dealing with experts who will get it done
Check our reviews. Our client's love us. We put in the work, and always put you first. Trust, integrity, honesty and passion!
If you live here already, you know how blessed we are. If you’re considering living or investing here, you’ve probably experienced some of the area’s extraordinary possibilities: country settings and small-town communities; enthralling agricultural beauty, and true farm to fork lifestyle, If Northern California is your real estate destination, you’ve arrived at the right spot. Whether you’re looking to buy your first home – or to sell an estate – expect nothing less from us than a Meritage blend of real estate expertise, professional service, creativity, and a passion for achieving your goals.
What Our Beautiful Happy Clients Say
Become an Insider and gain access to off-market opportunities
Connecting with thousands of real estate practitioners around the globe affords us lots of off-market opportunities. There is no fee to become and insider. Just use the form to the right and sign up.